Not Your Demographic

Assertions so counter intuitive and nonsensical - they must be true!

Cogent insights by Benjamin Scherrey

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Analysis of number of Incidents & Deaths

Have been doing projections across several data sources. Frankly, the reported cases are extremely varied over different sites. They do seem to be showing relatively similar rates of growth in incidents - which is the most important indicator as to whether or not this virus is whipped. I'm focusing on right now because they provide easy access to the daily raw figures. This analysis is for USA only although I will do some comparisons with Italy. It does appear that Italy peaked out around March 9th as their rates of new incidents is declining. Understand this is just the rate of growth - not absolute figures. There will be lots more incidents and deaths for the next few months but those numbers should start to taper off.

According to, it is POSSIBLE that USA has already peaked around Mar 13. As expansion of testing is deployed thanks to the private sector efforts Trump announced last week we might see a bump in reported cases but actually still be declining in actual rate of increase of new infections. Death rates will be the indicator that confirms this or not.

From Mar 11 til Mar 16 the rate of growth for new incidents dropped from a rolling average of 36.2% to 27.88%. Those are big numbers. Death rates for the same period dropped from 33.3% to 18.33%. (These are rates of increase of incidents & deaths, not the likelihood of dying if you get the virus which is already under 2% and dropping fast.) That drop is likely exaggerated due to the unusually high death rate caused by the unfortunate situation with the retirement home in Washington state which skews our numbers high. Overall our death rate which hit 2.74% on Mar 12 is now down to 1.77% as of the 16th and will likely drop significantly below 1% in a week's time. This is good news. According to the site, as of Mar 16, USA has had 4,019 incidents of confirmed covid infections and 71 total deaths.

My projections - assuming those numbers and constant rates of growth - are that by Mar 21 we should see a total of about 13,745 infections and 192 total deaths. BUT - if the rates of growth continue to drop both of these estimates should be on the high side, especially the death totals. If the real numbers are significantly below these projections then it means Covid is in serious decline and things should be back to normal soon. Will update again in a day or two as new numbers present themselves.

Some interesting additional figures. Most states have under a dozen incidents and zero deaths. Washington State is the far edge case with 904 cases and 48 deaths. The only state with that number of cases is New York with 950 cases yet only 7 deaths. There are only 10 states that even have more than 100 total cases to date. So - follow safe practices and CONTINUE TO GO ALONG YOUR NORMAL BUSINESS unless you are in a high-risk area or would be a high-risk patient due to a compromised immune system due to age or illness. You do not need to super isolate yourself. Just keep your personal space and hygiene procedures and you'll be fine.

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