Not Your Demographic

Assertions so counter intuitive and nonsensical - they must be true!

Cogent insights by Benjamin Scherrey

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Original projections at:

As of Mar 18th America has 7731 total incidents of corono-virus and 112 deaths. This is a reduction in the rate of growth (35.09%) from the prior day's number (42.40%) but still higher than the average since March 8th (33.01%). Likelihood is that these last two higher numbers come from newly discovered pre-existing cases thanks to increased access to testing. Supporting this belief (but, frankly, it's too few data items to yet call it a supporting trend) is the fact that rates of death continue to drop - meaning it's converging to a more representative lower number. Based on earlier projections with lower rates of incident growth, the death rate should be about 1.56% on Mar 18th but, instead, we got an even lower death rate of 1.45% actual. That's good news. Also, the projected date for when the death rate should fall below 1% has moved up to March 27th when previously it was projected to be March 28th.

Will have more detailed projections later this weekend as we re-evaluate the several day trends. The main supported trend that, thus far, has not been violated during any of our tracking, is that we are quickly converging to an under 1% death rate for detected incidents. This supports what actual doctors and scientists have been saying all along in that catching corono-virus for the vast majority of people will be nothing more than a mild flu. BUT - those that are immunocompromised (elderly and already sick) are absolutely at risk (possibly as high as 5%) due to the unique temperature resilience of this version of the virus. So we do ALL need to take special precautions. However, we do NOT need to be shutting down the economy.

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