Not Your Demographic

Assertions so counter intuitive and nonsensical - they must be true!

Cogent insights by Benjamin Scherrey

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THE NEW TESTS ARE HERE! THE NEW TESTS ARE HERE! Yes - earlier this week Trump promised that a whole lot of new testing equipment and materials would be coming online. It appears they're finally in. Note that this is a full month (and maybe a few more days) after Germany was able to do the same and bump up their test rates. What's the difference? The German equivalent of the FDA does not control diagnostic tools or limit which labs are allowed to process tests. Please remember to close the FDA when this is all settled.

So given our understanding that rates of incidents has been bounded by ability to process tests, what would you expect to hear about the incident rog if you knew that the test rate just went up from about 140k tests/day to 193,738 tests/day? Well you might expect numeber new incidents to go up precisely aligned with the historical positives rate which (except for yesterday's California dump of negative tests) has been right at 17% for about a week. And that's EXACTLY what happened! Amazing! We're such good predictors so it confirms our model is the best, right? Hell no. It confirms we're measuring tests and not the pandemic. Makes it easier to hide the inflated death rates as well, btw, which now stands at 5.12% for anyone catching the Wuhan-flu. Clearly a completely nonsenscical number. *If* we start seeing that positive rate number drop off below 17% - ONLY then can we have any confidence that are numbers are approaching anything resembling reality.

For Thursday, rates of growth (rog) for new incidents is up and rog for deaths are lower. Our new total for incidents is 859,318 (+32,382 - on track for 1Million on Apr 28), an increase of 3.92% over the previous day (+0.51% from yesterday). Deaths have totaled 44,014 (+1,911) which is an increase of 4.54% (-0.73%) over the previous day and on track for 50,000 in two days. Since the peak in Mar 19, rates of growth for incidents has fallen by 47.72% and for deaths has fallen by 38.32%.

Slightly annoying news - the fine folks over at ( ) COMPLETELY revamped their model yesterday which was showing 70% of all states at below the 1.0 level - and it just shoved 60% of states above that level in doing so. Understand that death rates do not enter into that model, only new case rates (which we know are broken) - so while we wanna see every state below the 1.0 level, what we care about now is that the trend will be downward so more states will get down below that line as we go. Let's give it a few more days to see. The good news is, only one state, Connecticut, is above the 1.2 level (1.26) whereas the majority were only 4 weeks ago.

Finally - I noticed at least two of my posts were silently removed from Facebook over the last week or so. Both just happened to have strong negative views about the current government in China. So I've revived my long dead blog to keep a permanent record of my Facebook rants. Unfortunately for the CCP, I create most of my posts offline so I have backups of the originals ready to repost at will! I expect going forward I'll simply post a summary of my posts on FB and then link to the full article on my blog. So if you want to share my stuff, please share the blog links over sharing the FB posts cause you never know when FB will disappear as it goes through the process of "truing up" our content - for our own good, of course.

Here's the link to this article - Wuhan Daily Update for April 23 for your reference.

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