WUHAN VIRUS DAILY UPDATE FOR APRIL 26
ALL CURVES DOWN, SAVE UP TIL TUESDAY. Not surprisingly, Sunday has the largest rates of growth (rog) drop by far that we've yet seen. The day before had slightly higher than typical Saturday numbers so it's likely a combination of numbers coming in earlier and then deaths simply not being reported in many places on Sunday. If typical, we'll see a rather significant bounce on Tuesday as states "true up" their numbers and then Wednesday and Thursday will give us an indication of any actual trends in the data. Note that these are data trends and the correlation with the actual Wuhan-virus pandemic is more in doubt every day. I'm reporting these figures for completions sake more than any policy value at this time. Good news is that testing rates are staying high at 255,574 completed yesterday. Oddly our percent positive rates dropped to 10.70%, half of the typical number we've seen for weeks up until just two days ago.
Our new total for incidents is 959,056 (+27,358 - back on track for 1Million on Apr 28th cause of the data reporting latencies), an increase of 2.94% over the previous day (-1.64% from yesterday). Deaths have totaled 49,164 (+1,184) which is an increase of %2.47 (-2.32%) over the previous day and just missed hitting the 50,000 number which will now happen tomorrow, a day after we predicted. Since the peak in Mar 19, rates of growth for incidents has fallen by 48.70% and for deaths has fallen by 40.39%.
Some interesting state by state states on percent of test results that come back positive can be found on Peter Walker's Tableau site. It clearly demonstrates how New York and New Jersey have been pushing our numbers and how no other state even comes close to their nummbers. New York is finally in decline but New Jersey is still holding at nearly 50% positive rates. Meanwhile, Connecticut, Colorado, and Washington DC, and Delaware are the only states going higher.
