WUHAN VIRUS DAILY UPDATE FOR MARCH 25
Deaths, as projected, broke 1000 today at 1,163 holding steady at 31.12% with a mortality rate of 1.44%. Tomorrow, incidents will break 100,000 as they hit 80,735 today. The rate of growth of incidents moved up slightly after four days of consecutive reductions but is still following the reduced slant we're hoping for at 26.79%. Hope to see this number continue its overall decline as Italy has seen as well. Basically everything is pretty much exactly where our projections would expect it. Still - the number of outstanding tests waiting for results in the hotspot of California are a cause of caution and we are likely see some new hotspots show up in America in places like New Orleans and towns in Florida where large crowd activities took place in February and March.
At current rates, we'll see 10,000 deaths in USA by April 3 or 4 as these existing cases play out. The mortality rate will likely move up slightly around 2% as a result before it starts to decline again. That will also have over 100,000 total incidents. Some good news is that our test capacity has doubled to over 100,000 tests per day! This is the tool that can give us the information we need to properly contain the pandemic without destroying the economy. We need that number to continue to outpace the growth of new cases - which it is for now. Also, the academic report from Imperial College in the UK that has been so widely touted by the media just reduced their predicted deaths massively by an order of magnitude - because math! I described the problems I had with this model when it first came out and the model STILL has those fundamental problems as I point out here: Facebook Post
I hope to run some individual state numbers this weekend if I have time to write a bit of code to reorganize my data and projections.