Not Your Demographic

Assertions so counter intuitive and nonsensical - they must be true!

Cogent insights by Benjamin Scherrey

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The trend is your friend - and today it continues as our rates of growth for both incidents and deaths go to new lows. As of Mar 29, we have a total of 139,061 incidents which is an increase of only 17.62% from the day before and 2,428 deaths which is an increase of only 23.56% from the day before. These are reductions in rates of growth of 34.02% and 19.29% since the peak growth on Mar 19 respectively.

Now the issue here is that I think my model is too general and time is demonstrating that there are a LOT of different curves going on at the same time. Because the hotspots are so overwhelming in their base actual numbers, they drive the trend at a power level that hides other trends in other places that aren't yet hotspots but have the potential to be. Not only is it too soon to declare victory but it's also very likely wrong.

States that have fairly low absolute numbers are starting to pick up. There isn't enough testing in these states to say what's real or establish a trend yet. Four of concern are Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and Mississippi who have rising case loads that could suggest they aren't properly contained and will see the kinds of growth rates that we saw in creating new hotspots. I'm working on a new set of models that will identify and isolate these areas from the national model.

California still has serious latencies with its pending test result backlog so expect her numbers to potentially break out of the national trend as well.

All in all - I think we can be confident that this Wuhan-virus can be managed and beaten. My prescription remains the same - reasonable precautions, excellent hygiene, responsible self-isolation, but no need for quarrantine outside of hotspots and developing hotspots and we'll beat this thing without too much 2nd and 3rd order effect consequences. But we cannot become complacent as the rest of the nation starts seeing their loads increase. WE MUST GET WIDESPREAD TESTING ASAP! The sooner the better.

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