WUHAN VIRUS DAILY UPDATE FOR APRIL 5
BIG NEWS! We are under 10% growth rate in new incidents for the first time since there have been any incidents in America!!! If the rate of growth drops tomorrow by the same rate it did today then death rates of growth will also be under 10% within 2 days. To keep this in perspective, I refer you to yesterdays admonitions about the declining usefulness of my existing model. Regardless - this is promising news. We also performed 139,959 tests in one day yesterday so our testing capacity is moving in the right direction as well.
MORE INTERESTING NEWS - this could be due to some adjustments in the data source but the next two days should be more telling: for the first time ever we've seen the raw number of both new incidents and deaths grow slower than the day before. Compare Apr 4, 33,840 new cases to today's 26,553 new cases for a delta of -7,287, Apr 4 1,352 deaths vs today's 1,184 for a delta of -168. Two more declines in a row and we can declare the curve flattened. The sad news is that we've cross the milestone of 10,000 total deaths due to the Wuhan-virus in America. We're on track for that number to hit 20,000 before the middle of April and achieve 1,000,000+ incidents at the same time. If the rates of growth keep falling as they have this may be pushed back to later but it's surely going to come in April.
Given a total of 1,779,339 total tests completed in America, our new total for incidents is 332,308 (+26,553), down to an increase of 8.68% over the previous day (down -3.76% from yesterday). Deaths have totaled 9,498 (+1,184) which is an increase of 14.24% (-5.18% rate of growth) over the previous day. Since the peak in Mar 19, rates of growth for incidents has fallen by 42.95% and for deaths has fallen by 28.62%.
Don't have a lot more to offer regarding analysis today. One of two scenarios is going to play out this month. 1) Either the rates of growth continue to plummet and this thing is beat (almost impossible), or 2) we're gonna see the numbers start twitching up and down which will show us the curves elsewhere in the country are coming in play and taking on a life of their own. The effectiveness of our policies at the local and state levels are going to determine how big that second option plays out.