Not Your Demographic

Assertions so counter intuitive and nonsensical - they must be true!

Cogent insights by Benjamin Scherrey

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NEW CURVES COMING OR JUST DATA REPORTING BUMP? New incidents continue to track lower growth rates but the death numbers really went up today. Is this just a data collection latency showing up for one day or are we seeing real mortality rates start taking hold outside of the prior hotspots? Illinois reported an increase of 25% of their entire death total with 80 new deaths in one day. We'll have to wait for the next 2-3 days figures to have an opinion about this. Also, only 136,632 new tests were conducted which is lower than our daily rate above 150k. Frustrating. Given a total of 2,071,019 total tests completed in America, our new total for incidents is 392,594 (+31,263), up slightly to an increase of 8.65% over the previous day (-0.93% from yesterday). Deaths have totaled 12,621 (+1,941) which is an increase of 18.17% (+5.73% rate of growth) over the previous day. Since the peak in Mar 19, rates of growth for incidents has fallen by 42.98% and for deaths has fallen by 24.68%.

Next few days will determine whether or not the clear decline trend continues or this national tracking model has pretty much ran out of its usefulness. What is clear is that we need wide spread randomized anti-body testing to get an understanding as to whether our policies regarding the pandemic are working or actually making the problem worse. It is utterly irresponsible not to have this going by now. We're literally flying blind without it. It is the ONLY way to determine whether or not herd immunity is taking place and when it is safe to re-open the economy and where.

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