Not Your Demographic

Assertions so counter intuitive and nonsensical - they must be true!

Cogent insights by Benjamin Scherrey

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RESUMPTION OF THE SLOW DECLINE. It seems that several states went back and restated prior numbers and that was responsible for the significant bump in deaths and smaller bump in incidents from a few days ago. Both rates of growth are back in decline with incident-rog (rate of growth) hitting a new record low and death-rog very close to their record low and likely to make a new one tomorrow. Indeed, even though the numbers are different, the each rog value is declining at nearly identical rates. That's promising. The big question remains as to whether or not other hotspots will flare up as the current ones remain in decline and get under control. Sadly - we simply do not have the necessary data to determine this because there are no widespread random anti-body tests being collected to determine this. Yesterday a total of 168,026 tests were run and the vast majority were of symptomatic individuals no very little useful data coming out of this. This remains the biggest failure of our respective government representatives from the entire pandemic debacle. Frustrating.

Meanwhile, tomorrow we'll hit the 20,000 deaths mark which means it doubled in about 6 or 7 days. If the rates of growth keep declining at approximately the same rates this pandemic will top out at under 40,000 deaths. I believe the initial range I projected once we identified the peak rog at being Mar 19 was between 20,000 and 100,000 deaths total. So this a good result if that ends up being our outcome. It also means that this thing wraps up by the end of the month in terms of being a serious risk. That's *IF* the numbers keep moving the way they are.

Given a total of 2,546,169 total tests completed in America, our new total for incidents is 492,678 (+34,715), up slightly to an increase of 7.58% (a new record low since Mar 19) over the previous day (-0.64% from yesterday). Deaths have totaled 18,488 (+2,089) which is an increase of 12.74% (-0.40% rate of growth) over the previous day. I expect this rog to drop to a new record low tomorrow. Since the peak in Mar 19, rates of growth for incidents has fallen by 44.06% and for deaths has fallen by 30.12%.

Long past time to open up the country and adopt the same model as Sweden for every place that isn't currently a hotspot or looking to become one (as I have advocated from the beginning). (See yesterday's list for current and risky hotspot states.) Seems many of our representatives are enjoying their shiny new police state a bit too much. Much more of this and they risk pitch forks.

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