WUHAN VIRUS DAILY UPDATE FOR APRIL 11
DOWNWARD SPIKE - DATA POINT OR STRONGER TREND? Good news today - as projected from yesterday, new records lows for rates of growth (rog) for both incidents and deaths since the peak on Mar 19! Even better, unless deaths spike up tomorrow, we'll be under 10% rog for deaths tomorrow and going forward. If this holds then the pandemic will be over before we hit a total of 36,000 total deaths. That doesn't mean that there won't continue to be people dying of complications due to the Wuhan-flu, but it means, as a societal health issue, it will be done. The sad news is, as predicted, total deaths did break the 20,000 mark today.
Given a total of 2,681,922 total tests completed in America, our new total for incidents is 522,506 (+28,828), up slightly to an increase of 6.05% (a new record low since Mar 19) over the previous day (-1.53% from yesterday). Deaths have totaled 20,339 (+1,851) which is an increase of 10.01% (-2.73% rate of growth) over the previous day. Since the peak in Mar 19, rates of growth for incidents has fallen by 45.48% and for deaths has fallen by 32.85%.
The frustrating news is that we only completed 135,753 tests yesterday - far less than the 150k average which should be more than twice this level at 300k+ by now. Seems our public policy makers aren't interested in getting accurate information about this pandemic when it would be incredibly simple and easy for them to do so. That really causes a loss of trust regarding our representatives and supposed leaders.
Meanwhile, be on the lookout for scammer politicians, media, and "scientists" who try to justify that their blatantly wrong models were still useful because they changed public behavior. Saying it's ok because it changed behavior is saying it's ok to lie to people. That is both unethical and immoral - especially when you clearly have better options. The people touting such models could only have 3 reasons - 1) they're damned ignorant, 2) they've got a political agenda, or 3) they expect personal reward. When I can do better with a simple spreadsheet than all these government funded IYI's (Nicholas Taleb's great term for "Intellectuals but Idiots") by several orders of magnitude then you know they aren't scientists - they have an agenda.
Real science doesn't seek to control - it seeks to inform - regardless of political outcomes. There hasn't been much real science going on for some time.