Not Your Demographic

Assertions so counter intuitive and nonsensical - they must be true!

Cogent insights by Benjamin Scherrey

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CHOPPY WATERS - SIDEWAYS MOVES. Both rates of growth (rog) for new incidents and deaths are slightly down today but really can't call this anything but a sideways move for now. As projected, we broke 30,000 deaths today and will hit 35,000 within two days except that's likely not to be reported til next week because of reasons I explain at the end of this report.

I've been talking about the development of new curves across the country. For the first week of April, NYC alone was 50% of all deaths reported. It has now dropped to 1/3rd. NYC & New Jersey combined are still responsible for 50% of the entire nation's deaths! The chart I've attached (you can play with it here: Chart of NY&NJ vs Rest of America ) demonstrates this quite clearly. You can see the states I've been warning about showing up as biggest influences on our numbers. Understand that these are absolute numbers and not rates of change. I find it interesting because of the bump over the last three days - right after the CDC changed it's reporting standards. Each of these new hotspots just adding a few more % to their numbers makes a great impact on the over all picture when they're added together. Frankly I find it highly suspect for reasons I explain at the end of this report. Understand I have not made any conclusions. But I have a couple of theories that explain this graph quite well. Only time and more data will tell.

Given a total of 3,417,991 total tests completed in America, our new total for incidents is 663,260 (+30,604), up slightly to an increase of 4.84% over the previous day (-0.17% from yesterday). Deaths have totaled 30,296 (+2,136) which is an increase of 7.59% a good drop (-2.12%) over the previous day. Since the peak in Mar 19, rates of growth for incidents has fallen by 46.80% and for deaths has fallen by 35.27%. There were, again, only 158,335 tests completed at a time where we need more testing than ever.

Now we're entering into the weekend and so, due to reporting lag, expect to see rog for deaths fall until Tuesday when they'll catch up so we really won't know what's real until next Wednesday. Doesn't seem people who are responsible for reporting this stuff and collecting the data are taking this very seriously. Weeks are like eons in managing this but, hey, what's a few days delay for informing the public and policy makers, right? After all - they've got jobs and paychecks and this is all just a big inconvenience for them worst case and a power grab best case. Meanwhile people without jobs are home going broke and this takes real years off of their lives that won't happen til the Wuhan-virus is long gone. Frustrating. But that's what happens when you give power to people who don't suffer the consequences of their decisions. Who don't have skin in the game like everyone else. I call that evil.

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