WUHAN VIRUS DAILY UPDATE FOR APRIL 20
TIL TUESDAY - Will our voices carry for randomized anti-body testing? Exactly, again, as predicted, everything is down lower and is expected to continue to decline until possibly Monday but most likely Tuesday. I'm just reporting stats for completeness sake but expect by Tuesday that these numbers will all be corrected upwards and the trend won't be identifiable until Thursday. Number of tests were up significantly yesterday so they're down significantly today to make up for any progress that may have accidentally happened.
As we completely predicted (I use the word projected when the data can be trusted - it no longer can), both rates of growth (rog) for new incidents and deaths are lower and will continue to drop until Tuesday. (yawn) Given a total of 130,400 tests completed in America, our new total for incidents is 772,524 (+23,321), down to an increase of 3.11% over the previous day (-0.63% from yesterday). Deaths have totaled 37.321 (+1,528) which is an increase of 4.27% (-0.58%) over the previous day. Since the peak in Mar 19, rates of growth for incidents has fallen by 48.52% and for deaths has fallen by 38.59%.
Here is some interesting and positive news. This site ( https://rt.live/ ) I posted two days ago which is the first I've ever seen get an Rt stat model correct is showing quite a positive trend. Two days ago only 1/3 of the states were under the 1.0 line which means the virus spread is not sustainable and will go away. Today fully 1/2 of the states are under the line! What's interesting is that NY is well below the line so hopefully they're finally under control.
In more excellent news - USC has done another anti-body study and their results reproduced the ones from Stanford! This supports the conclusion that there are 20-50x more cases than our confirmed numbers report. This radically changes the picture of the pandemic and what our policies should be in regards to its management. LA Times - Coronavirus Serology Testing LA County
So scream loud for randomized anti-body testing! Voices carry! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_0YTX9Hqr8
Original Post: