WUHAN VIRUS DAILY UPDATE FOR APRIL 22
OH... SO WE FOUND THESE TESTS, CALIFORNIA. Total numbers of tests reported for yesterday alone - 311,616 - TWICE the rate of any other prior day. Did we suddenly bump up our test capacity? Nope - this is the 2nd time California dumped a lot of old tests from who knows what on us. Interestingly, these must be a lot of negative tests because the positive rate overall dropped to 8.73% after it's been hovering at just under 20% for, well, pretty much March 19th. Not sure what they're doing over there - but it doesn't seem to be responsible data collection/reporting. Meanwhile we're past the Tuesday spike and numbers continue on our slow but clearly downwards curve.
For Wednesday, both rates of growth (rog) for new incidents and deaths are lower. Our new total for incidents is 826,936 (+27,219 - almost identical to yesterday), down to an increase of 3.40% over the previous day (-0.12% from yesterday). Deaths have totaled 42,103 (+2,108) which is an increase of 5.27% (-1.89%) over the previous day. Since the peak in Mar 19, rates of growth for incidents has fallen by 48.23% and for deaths has fallen by 37.59%.
We can see that rogs for both incidents and deaths have been accelerating their falls. Since Mar 19 the average daily drop in rogs for incidents and deaths has been -4.69% and -2.81% respectively. The average over the last 5 days, however, has been faster at -7.11% and -6.41%. Hopefully these downward rates will continue to accelerate.
Really excellent news! According to our Rt tracking site ( https://rt.live/ ) 70% of all states are now below the 1.0 line meaning the Wuhan-virus will burn itself out there. Unfortunately, Arkansas, which was one of the lowest Rt states is now the highest at a 2.3 rating. Let's hope that's a data latency anomaly and that we'll see Arkansas drop down below the 1.0 line soon.