Not Your Demographic

Assertions so counter intuitive and nonsensical - they must be true!

Cogent insights by Benjamin Scherrey

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Friday May 15th, 2020

POLICIES AGAINST VIRUS THAT KILLS MOSTLY ELDERLY AND MEN ENDS UP KILLING FAR MORE YOUNG WOMEN AND CHILDREN THEN ALL VIRUS DEATHS! I've been raising the concern about 2nd and 3rd order effects since March 19th. On March 29th, I described how responsible and effective policies could be enacted to avoid those consequences. On April 25th, I covered front line doctors in California anecdotally confirming that these effects were already being seen. Today, I present a model published on April 21st from John Hopkins University which was funded and reviewed by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation that has been in use for over 15 years.

This isn't anything created special for the Wuhan-virus. It accurately described the same phenomenon in Africa as 2nd order consequences to the Ebola virus where significantly more children under 5 and their mothers died than were killed by Ebola, a virus an order of magnitude more virulent and dangerous than even the worse predictions for the Wuhan-virus. If there would be ANY political bias by the authors or foundation regarding the current policies regarding this virus it would be towards MORE lockdown intervention. The conclusion, unmistakably, is the opposite and they don't sugar coat it. The policies of strict lockdown have, by now, murdered thousands of babies and young mothers and continue to do so today. More than the number of deaths recorded world wide by the Wuhan-virus. And, take note, this report only ascertains the impact of ONE 2nd order vector out of many, not to mention the 3rd order effects that will also come. Policy makers can no longer claim they didn't know.

You likely also noticed that the title of the articles in this blog has changed. That's because the subject we must address is far larger than just this one Wuhan-virus pandemic. Sure, Wuhan-flu is a key protagonist in the story - but it's only one of many. In fact, the direct impact of the virus could only have ever been a secondary player for what we have discovered is that the government and agency led interventions in "fighting" these pandemics have been far more costly than had they simply done nothing. Far more costly in terms of lives lost, wealth destroyed, dangerous centralization of power, and loss of individual freedom and liberty that hasn't even been imagined since the Bolshevik Revolution. Except this time we're doing it to ourselves and not a shot has been fired in defense of freedom.

I'll still report on relevant updates and stats that we have for the Wuhan-virus if only because once the real numbers are reconciled we will be able to look back at them and be absolutely shocked about how wrong they are. But the trends of the numbers we have still do provide some useful indicators in terms of effectiveness (or lack thereof) of certain policies.

I initially discovered this paper by following links in this The Telegraph article - "Unicef warns lockdown could kill more than Covid-19 as model predicts 1.2 million child deaths" published on May 13th. Reading through it, health agencies such as Unicef, the Department of International Development (Dfid) for the UK, the United Nations, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine are all in agreement about this deadly outcome.

The core conclusion from The Telegraph Article:


The research looks at the consequences of disruption in 118 low and middle income countries, based on three scenarios. Even in the most optimistic case, where access to health services dropped by 15 per cent and child wasting rose by 10 per cent, an additional 253,500 children and 12,200 mothers died.

But a worst-case scenario, where services are reduced by 45 per cent and the proportion of children who are wasting grows by 50 per cent, could result in 1.16 million additional child fatalities and 57,000 maternal deaths in just six months.

The modelling projected that India would see both the largest number of additional deaths in children under five and maternal mortality, followed by Nigeria. Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania and Indonesia are also likely to be hit hard.

Such a situation has some precedent - research has shown that in 2014, during the Ebola outbreak in west Africa, more people died from indirect effects than the disease itself. But the scale of the pandemic means the consequences will be far greater.

“Ever since we started counting child deaths and maternal mortality, those numbers have been going down and down and down,” said Dr Peterson. “And actually these times are unprecedented because we’re very likely to be looking at a scenario where figures are going up.

“That’s not from Covid - Covid is not a children's disease. Yes there are rare instances and we see them publicised across the media. But pneumonia, diarrhoea, measles, death in childbirth, these are the reasons we will see deaths rise,” he said. “These threats far outweighs any threat presented by the coronavirus in low and middle income countries.”

end quote

Understand that none of these deaths have any relevance to any interaction with the Wuhan-virus whatsoever. They are solely due to dangerous and irresponsible malpractice by policy makers and the individuals who are supposed to be informing them. Every single one of these deaths was entirely preventable.

This is already too long an article so I will continue with more tomorrow. Until then, here's the picture of the pandemic that we're allowed to see today:

Our new total for incidents is 1,407,507 (+25,203), an increase of 1.82% over the previous day (+0.24% from yesterday). Deaths have totaled 80,084 (+1,741) which is an increase of 2.22% (+0.03%) over the previous day. Since the peak in Mar 19, rates of growth for incidents has fallen by 49.81% and for deaths has fallen by 40.63%. There were 367,634 tests completed with a 6.86% positive rate - the 3rd lowest we've yet measured.

Meanwhile, your homework today is to read the article: Early Estimates of the Indirect Effects of the Coronavirus Pandemic on Maternal and Child Mortality in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. Be sure and download the pdf from the link. It's not too technical and opens up a lot of questions.

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