Not Your Demographic

Assertions so counter intuitive and nonsensical - they must be true!

Cogent insights by Benjamin Scherrey

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Tuesday May 24th, 2020

Been 5 days since my last update here. Several people have asked me what's next. Well three things : first, I've just been busy being productive for my paid work so doing the research and analysis for 2-3 hours a day has become a larger effort than I have time for; second, there's not really much more to say that I haven't already said; and finally, even the news and reports from major media and government agencies are starting to admit what I've said all along. As you might imagine - being a contrarian, this kinda sucks a lot of the fun out of it. BUT - we can take this moment to look back at the conflicts between what my projections have been, what the government & media scare tactics have been, and what has actually happened.

Despite the indisputable documented evidence of padded deaths, week to week, the decline of deaths across the various states is unmistakable throughout May. On May 2nd, 5 states (NY, NJ, MA, MI, & IL) had over 100 deaths, 2 of those (NY, NJ) were over 200. A week later, May 9th, those same 5 states had over 100 deaths but only New York broke 200. Last week, May 16th, only 3 states broke 100 deaths. Now on May 23rd, only one state broke 100 deaths and it was Pennsylvania which was not one of the prior 5 states.

Peter Walker - Deaths by State as of May 23rd Peter Walker - Deaths by State as of May 23rd

Almost ALL states are in obvious declines so we're not seeing 2nd waves or new significant outbreaks across America as was our concern. On March 31st, the government predicted a total of 100k - 200k deaths for the first two weeks of April. In my post for that day I demonstrated what would have to occur for that to even be possible and what a pessimistic and unlikely event that would be given the data we had seen thus far. Naturally, the data was right.

Two weeks ago there was a clear overall decline but a few regions were still wavering.

Peter Walker - Deaths by Region as of May 12th Peter Walker - Deaths by Region as of May 12th

Look at it now. Even the areas in question are all in clear decline.

Peter Walker - Deaths by Region as of May 23rd Peter Walker - Deaths by Region as of May 23rd

As things stand, even with the fake deaths attributed to Wuhan-virus, it is probable we will stay below 100,000 total deaths for the entire month of May - a number that every single person challenging my articles argued was impossibly low. It will be close, however, regardless which means those critics (none of which had done any honest analysis beyond their ridiculous R0/Rt projections) will be shown to be completely wrong - again.

In my May 5th report I predicted we'd be down to a 1.50% death rog by mid-May. That was accomplished on May 17th. Now we're below 1.42% and dropping at a faster pace than the week prior. Assuming a constant rate for the drop, we will get below 1000 daily deaths nationally by June 5 and should see under 125,000 total deaths by the end of June. This matches my initial projection waaaay back on March 20th ("My bet right now is that this will happen in April and the end date will be in June.") which I then further reinforced on May 4th ("My projections from March 20th remain : The pandemic falls in May and effectively ends in June."). Naturally these projections went completely against anything our governments or major media outlets were saying. Just remember. I said it. Dr. Levitt said it. Anyone who has honestly run the numbers has said it. NONE OF YOUR PAID GOVERNMENT OR MAJOR MEDIA SAID IT.

There is a LOT I could write about the way those of us just reporting honestly have been mis-treated, accused, and maligned. I have it on record in chats and images. It would make a shocking and disturbing article because the people who acted in this manner are ALL people who claim they base their perspective on science. And in every case, in every conversation, whether they be doctors or computer people, or researchers who all should know better - every single one of them ultimately dismissed the data in front of their eyes and resorted to the "3 A's" - Authority, Advertising, and Anecdotes. Those are the enemies of science. When you invoke those you aren't following the scientific method - you are practicing the "Occult of Scientism". These are the people Nasim Taleb describe as "Intellectual Yet Idiots" (IYI). Let me tell you - these people are scary dangerous. Every one of them want to control you and hold you to standards that they would never hold to themselves. Maybe some day I'll write that article but every time I start on it I am reminded how these people were people I once respected and how disgusting their behavior was. Makes it quite painful and sad to write, honestly.

Here's an excerpt from Taleb's article. Please read it and you will recognize these people for who they are:

"The Intellectual Yet Idiot is a production of modernity hence has been accelerating since the mid twentieth century, to reach its local supremum today, along with the broad category of people without skin-in-the-game who have been invading many walks of life. Why? Simply, in most countries, the government’s role is between five and ten times what it was a century ago (expressed in percentage of GDP). The IYI seems ubiquitous in our lives but is still a small minority and is rarely seen outside specialized outlets, think tanks, the media, and universities — most people have proper jobs and there are not many openings for the IYI.

Beware the semi-erudite who thinks he is an erudite. He fails to naturally detect sophistry.

The IYI pathologizes others for doing things he doesn’t understand without ever realizing it is his understanding that may be limited. He thinks people should act according to their best interests and he knows their interests, particularly if they are “red necks” or English non-crisp-vowel class who voted for Brexit. When plebeians do something that makes sense to them, but not to him, the IYI uses the term “uneducated”. What we generally call participation in the political process, he calls by two distinct designations: “democracy” when it fits the IYI, and “populism” when the plebeians dare voting in a way that contradicts his preferences. While rich people believe in one tax dollar one vote, more humanistic ones in one man one vote, Monsanto in one lobbyist one vote, the IYI believes in one Ivy League degree one-vote, with some equivalence for foreign elite schools and PhDs as these are needed in the club."

His diagnosis is completely right. This phenomenon is directly a result of government being too damn big and intrusive. Now look around you and see who is benefiting and who is losing from the response to this pandemic. Show me a government official who has missed a paycheck. Show me a government official who has created a business, employed people for 3 decades, created wealth for our entire society and has now lost it forever in the span of 90days.

Now tell me again how you're going to look yourself in the mirror and vote for more or continued power for these fuckers.

Don't you dare do it. Don't you dare ever do it again and call yourself an American.

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