WUHAN VIRUS DAILY UPDATE FOR APRIL 15
BUMPY RIDE COMING. NEW CURVES AHEAD? Today we saw the decline in our rate of growth (rog) for new incidents appear to stop. It's actually up half a percent over yesterday after 5 days of consecutive and significant declines. The rog for deaths basically went sideways, down only slightly over yesterdays big gain again after five days consecutive declines until yesterday. The most scary news is that a great deal of these news deaths come from outside New York implying that other hotspots are in development. Given a total of 3,259,656 total tests completed in America, our new total for incidents is 632,656 (+30,183), up slightly to an increase of 5.01% over the previous day (+0.55% from yesterday). Deaths have totaled 28,160 (+2,492) which is an increase of 9.71% (-0.13%) over the previous day. Since the peak in Mar 19, rates of growth for incidents has fallen by 46.63% and for deaths has fallen by 33.15%. There were, again, only 161,421 tests completed at a time where we need more testing than ever.
At current rogs, tomorrow we'll break 30,000 total deaths and within 2 days we'll break 35,000. If the decline does not resume we'll hit 40,000 before the end of the month. The following states seem to be the most problematic. All but California have > 10% rog for deaths. California is at 8.8 but since their numbers are already significant and their reporting is incredibly suspect I've included them in the list to watch out for: AL, CA, FL, GA, IL, IN, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, OK, PA, and TX.
What's even more worrisome is that there is a move now to start segmenting and demanding numbers reporting by "race". Of all people, I am extremely interested in getting as much detail about death rates and adding all the transparency possible but we should be physically in the face of our government leadership to 1) get more testing done now, 2) get random anti-body testing to gauge the true presence of this pathogen in our society, and 3) set clear standards on definition of cause of death reporting because it is clear that some states/hospitals are reporting bad data and making good analysis impossible! A call out for racial stats instead of a call out for the 3 things I listed before means you're not trying to solve the problem. It means you're trying to make political points over people dying.